Today was a day of numbers, calculations and odds

This Sunday I spent most of the day looking at research on 2008 when Hillary Clinton lost to Barack Obama. The concept was to determine how the Super Delegates functioned and if there is an opportunity for Bernie Sanders to win the popular vote by the end of the Democratic primary. It does not appear that Bernie can clinch the elected delegates, but Hillary will not be able to clinch the election without the Super Delegates commitment either. Bernie could get the popular vote if he overcomes a 3 million vote deficit with a combination of increased voter participation and a huge win in California, like a 70% to 30% victory. He achieved this in Washington State and is poised for a similar win in Oregon. The largely Hispanic population of Los Angeles can have a large impact in Bernie Sanders ability to reach this milestone and simultaneously argue for the redistribution of Super Delegates at the convention. I don't have time to go into the details, but there are a few important primaries in the next few weeks before California and New Jersey. The other problem is that Bernie Sanders needs to take 9 out of the ten remaining primaries in order to have the upper hand on the count of contest won. He can tie by winning 8 out of 10, but anything less will take some wind out of the sails of the negotiations for Super Delegates.

The Blame Game - Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Bernie!

There they go again, blaming Bernie as a Ralph Nader before the primaries are even completed. The Democratic establishment is so full of crap for trying to create an enemy out of Bernie Sanders following their scandalous victory in New York. I don't have any immediate article links, but this is a sign of things to come as the Democratic primary moves towards California. The goal is to turn voters "off" of Bernie Sanders by making him an enemy of the party. The Democratic Party is the enemy and should remain so through the elections and through the convention by any means necessary. A fraudulent candidate should be challenged all the way to the end, which may include the general election and up to the declaration of the oath of office.

Sadly the alternative rationalization may be true,  assuming Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, in that he is the only democratically elected front runner currently. If he can overcome the entrenched Republican establishment then he has every right to become the President by virtue of winning popularly held elections. This cannot be said of Hillary Clinton who is only winning by voter suppression and party manipulations.

Other Issues with voting...Is this F@#KNG RUSSIA? - Votes Matter!

http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/19/politics/new-york-primary-voter-problem-polls-sanders-de-blasio/

Sanders campaign, New York officials cry foul after New York voters report issues


Whodathunkit? In 2016 you can't vote if you are a citizen of the country unless you friggin' establish a history of voting, stay in the same location and answer snail mail. Sadly the result of these types of Friggin' in the Riggin' are consistently against the spirit of the law and potentially in violation of the law. I can't even recite the basic nature of allowing people to vote, yet when you hear that in 2016 you have to declare an affiliation more than 6 months in advance of an election, which restricts who you can vote for, then I am dumbfounded that we have a government at all. Voter suppression based on race is a crime, but voter suppression over the entire population is apparently an acceptable way to do business.

Votes Matter!

How many votes does a Super Delegate Respresent?

Whatever happened to one person one vote? This doctrine isn't confirmed in the voting policies of the Democratic party and therefore it is not true for the United States. The parties are the gatekeepers to the government and we are seeing first hand how the Democratic and Republican parties mock this concept.

There are 719 total Super Delegates for the Democratic party. We can divide the total population of the party or just the population of the people who voted by 719 and get an idea of how many votes a SuperDelegate represent.  I am not sure how many voters there are in the party, before the purge. There are  247 popularly decided Delegates for New York's 1.8 million Democratic voters, so each delegate represents 7300 voters in a contest. Roughly 1/5th of the Delegates are Super Delegates. The elected delegates for New York are  44 Super Delegates for New York. All total the 44 SuperDelegates equal 322,000 voters.

If a Super Delegate is counted at the convention like a regular delegate then that means that a Super Delegate from New York represents 7,300 voter in one vote; without debate and by their independent proclamation as a Super Delegates. No accountability, No democractic responsibility.

The effect of the Super Delegate is exponentially powerful in that they have been counted against Bernie Sanders throughout the election process or whenever Bernie has pulled within striking distance of Hillary Clinton in order to defuse support by making the public think he can't win. In this way I would extrapolate that the 700 delegates represent about 280,000 actual votes and have therefore swayed the Democratic primary as a whole. This process has allowed the potential votes of 719 people to decide the next Presidential contender for the United States, a hardly democratic process.

At what point is the process by which parties choose candidates subject to legal review and control. Should not a party be held to a one vote per person rule in order to legitimately and democratically elect a President?

The Elephant in the Room

The real enemy is not the government, but the parties that control our government. The only way to affect change is by changing the two parties that have access to the White House and Congress. The current political environment is the first time in a long time that the schemes and tricks of the parties have been exposed while the public was paying attention and it's dirty. It's dirty inside and out. There is nothing about the voting policies of the Republican and Democratic parties that give them the right to send our soldiers out into the world to fight for Democracy when democracy at home is just a fanciful illusion.

Less than 5% of the population of New York is responsible for the next President of the United States

In a rigged system you cannot accurately measure the desires of a population through voting. New York reinforces this concept with the utmost absurdity. Bernie Sanders is a candidate that did not appear on the national stage until after the first primaries of 2016. Within a matter of 3 months the Sanders campaign has built a popular movement that captured over 40% of the vote of a major insulated state like New York and the only thing to blame is the restrictive requirements of the voter registration mechanism that suppresses the vote.

The Democratic party is not named after anything other than the concept of the general population participating in electing our leaders through voting. To have suppression of the vote as being an argument against the winner is ironic and disturbing.

Having watched the results on a web page that provided a county by county tally of the winners I was amazed that Bernie Sanders won 34 to 14 the number of counties in New York. That's a 2 to 1 margin and he was only defeated in the heavily populated areas of New York. There is no argument that he did not get the overall popular vote, but he was not humiliated and this state was clearly rigged with a voter registration system that closed before Mr. Sanders was even recognized as a candidate. Do the math and the momentum still exist for Bernie.

What would Hillary do; Should Hillary Clinton Quit if she loses New York?

The question of should Bernie Sanders quit the race if he doesn't win New York keeps coming up. My question is that the real issue is whether or not Hillary should quit the race if she doesn't win by double digits in New York. There is no argument for Hillary to continue in the primaries as she is not growing a movement and there is a clear argument for Bernie to continue as he is growing the democratic base and it will continue towards the summer and California primary.

I am not saying that Hillary still won't have a chance to sway the Super Delegates and squeeze out a win by destroying the movement that has followed Bernie Sanders, but her victory would be hollow, especially if she loses in New York. The reason Clinton is weak is not because of Sanders, but because of her political baggage and these issues will be exploited in November. Bernie cannot expect to win New York based on the polls, so he does not have anything to lose. If he does win or come within single digits, it will be devastating for Hillary. That is how the question should be phrased, What will Hillary do?

Pressure on Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in New York - NY Times

An obvious question for New York is whether or not their restrictive voter registration requirements will affect voters that want to vote for Sanders but won't be able to because of the closed party system and early voter registration deadline. The restrictive rules in New York prohibit a late runner from getting new voters into the system. Therefore if Bernie Sanders loses, but comes close he has effectively won New York and should look forward to California.