Monday, May 9, 2016

Today was a day of numbers, calculations and odds

This Sunday I spent most of the day looking at research on 2008 when Hillary Clinton lost to Barack Obama. The concept was to determine how the Super Delegates functioned and if there is an opportunity for Bernie Sanders to win the popular vote by the end of the Democratic primary. It does not appear that Bernie can clinch the elected delegates, but Hillary will not be able to clinch the election without the Super Delegates commitment either. Bernie could get the popular vote if he overcomes a 3 million vote deficit with a combination of increased voter participation and a huge win in California, like a 70% to 30% victory. He achieved this in Washington State and is poised for a similar win in Oregon. The largely Hispanic population of Los Angeles can have a large impact in Bernie Sanders ability to reach this milestone and simultaneously argue for the redistribution of Super Delegates at the convention. I don't have time to go into the details, but there are a few important primaries in the next few weeks before California and New Jersey. The other problem is that Bernie Sanders needs to take 9 out of the ten remaining primaries in order to have the upper hand on the count of contest won. He can tie by winning 8 out of 10, but anything less will take some wind out of the sails of the negotiations for Super Delegates.